Batch brew #25

Quantum, techno optimism and big forces driving change

Hey, the good old Caffeine Capitalist is here!

A lot is changin in the world, but there are just several big forces driving all changes, learn more from Ray Dalio.

Quantum, Quantum. Will it save us all? After all, we are technology optimists.

Four minutes and forty six seconds this time.

Dept. of Tiny Thoughts

“There are several big forces driving what is happening now in ways that haven’t happened in our lifetime but happened many times in history.

One is the big debt levels and debt increases that central banks have been supporting by buying a lot of debt with money they are printing.

A second is large internal conflicts within countries — the largest since 1930-45. They are due to the largest wealth and value differences since that period. The conflicts most threatening to our system are those between populists of the right and the left. This conflict will have big implications for taxes, how the wealth pie is divided, and how well our system works.

A third force is conflicts among countries as the world order shifts from being unipolar to bipolar.

- Ray Dalio

A lot is hapenning in the past months and days, and it seems all is getting bigger and accelerated. Looking back to take some lessons from the history - everything works in cycles.

Btw. really recommending to read Ray Dalio’s book - The Changing World Order, why nations succeed and fail.

Dept. of Insights - Quantum

Andrej recently visited Germany’s leading tech conference Bits&Pretzels in Munich. Which is happening during Oktoberfest! How convenient?

There were several key topics discussed as AI and LLMs (of course), sustainibility, climate tech, but more importantly - Quantum.

Did you know that Munich is one of the main European tech hubs for quantum computing? Incomparable with US or Japan in terms of interest of corporates, but still.

Quantum computing is already here, in its limited form and we can expect a leap to mainstream within a 5 to 10 year timeframe. This will create a comparable technological uplift for humanity as mainstream adoption of computers and then smartphones.

For quantum 101 crash course for non-techs, check this video by Kurzgesagt.

We are techno optimists. Technology will enhance human civilization, it will have its bumps on the way but there is no other way how to increase the productivity, economic growth, wealth, health and even sustainability and climate neutrality, than with technology. The question is just the timeframe.

Do you feel we are living in an technological progress with the latest innovation on GPT/LLMs?

Let’s visualise the implications of widely used quantum computing.

  1. Faster and encryption and decryption (also for blockchain) - both the biggest risk, but also the least exciting part of this technology

  2. LLMs getting much cheaper - cost-effectively democratizing generative AI

  3. Drug discovery and personalized medicine - quantum computers have the potential to simulate very complex molecular interactions at an unprecedented scale, time and cost, enabling researchers to analyze and design new drugs more efficiently

  4. Discovering new materials - computing power of quantum computers would help scientists to simulate and analyze the behavior of complex molecules and materials at the quantum level, enabling the discovery of new materials with novel properties. Real step-up in the material physics, which could even have an impact on climate - speeding up the discovery of CO2 catalysts and so helping us to achieve carbon neutrality more quickly

  5. Physics and simulation - is material science not enough? Computing power of quantum could help us to progress in the understanding of our world and universe, where we feel stagnation for the past decades.

Coming soon-ish, looking forward!

Until then, stay a tech-optimist.

Dept. of Twitter Thread Research (we can’t get our head around the generic “X”):

1/ Boring RVs. A super long thread on the whole RV biz, not so transferable to Europe, but a solid inspo:

2/ This one by Shaan hits home. What would you do if you had to launch tomorrow?

Dept. of Visual Research:

If you prefer to do it in an opposite way to Mr. Shaan above, then waterfall with a lot of iterations is your taste. If you are building a process for your path from idea to product, then this inspiration by Carl Vellotti might serve you well:

Carl Vellotti

News from our portfolios & where to shake hands:

  • Slavo and Andrej are looking forward to meet you at Engaged Conference in Prague on the 24th and 25th.

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Enjoy your coffee fresh, allocate capital, repeat! See you in 2 weeks 👋

The Caffeine Capitalist is a bimonthly newsletter written by Slavo Tuleya, Andrej Petrus & Martin Nemecek. It is written in partnership & in support from ZAKA.VC and Chop Chop Ventures.

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DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.